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Timing is Everything

Annual Economic Forecast

Timing is Everything – Annual Economic Forecast

November 9, 2017

Leaders from Northeast Ohio mid-size businesses joined colleagues for EDGE’s 10th Annual Economic Forecast.  This year Jeff Mortimer, Director of Investment Strategy for BNY-Mellon Wealth Management, presented less of a traditional economic forecast, but more a way of seeing how current economic indicators, in the context of economic cycles, influence buy-sell decisions. Thank you to our sponsors KPMG and Hiring Optics.

What made Jeff’s forecast unique is that he paid particular attention to the timing and flow of money and goods so that decisions around making transactions are executed at the time of maximum return for his clients.  This has implications for such top-level decisions like when to buy or sell a company, when to hold or release inventories, and when to enter into foreign markets.  Further, Jeff shared insights on the speed of technological adaptation, demographic shifts and of course the standard market indicators that make our economy tick.

Key Take-aways:

  • We have gone from a US-centric economy to a globalized economy.
  • The next recession that comes should be mild.
  • As human beings, we under invest in risks.   
  • We are about ¾ into the bull market. Bull market killers include rising inflation. Inflation shows up when least expected.
  • This is a decent time to sell a business or spin off.
  • This position historically lasts for 18 months and we are currently 11 months in; could go for another 7-12 months.

Additional Insights by Jeff Mortimer:

From Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus 

Jeff Mortimer’s November Investment Update discusses the transition from monetary to fiscal policy, taking a closer look at the Fed as it takes the lead. Jeff highlights previous tax cuts and their impact on the markets, as well as the importance of timing and potency of tax legislation.

The Increasing Attractiveness of International Equities 

Strong economic and earnings growth abroad are making international equities appear more attractive than they have in years. Jeff Mortimer’s October Investment Update takes a closer look at whether it is time to add exposure to international.

 

About the EDGE Executive Forum Series:

This quarterly breakfast program is designed for senior leaders of middle market growth companies headquartered here in northeast Ohio, and features topics and speakers that are current and important to any business leader faced with top-level strategic and operational choices. EDGE Member organizations are invited to send up to 8 members of their leadership team to each program.

Upcoming Executive Forum Events:

For more information contact: Grant Marquit Grant@edgef.org.